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IDC: 10% growth in 2009 U.S. online ad spending too optimistic


IDC is revising its forecast for 10% growth in U.S. online ad spending this year and, based on the latest data collected, that revision may be downwards.

Hold on to your hats, we may be in for a rougher ride than expected. IDC believes its previous forecast of 10% growth in U.S. online ad spending in 2009 to be "too optimistic".

Last year the market was growing at 18%. Last quarter it grew a meager 0.4%.

The market research firm now says ad spending could fall year-over-year this quarter, the first contraction since the dot-com bubble burst in 2001, and that things may get worse before they get better.

"All in all, we believe U.S. Internet advertising revenue could contract by as much as 5% in 1Q09 [compared to 2008's first quarter]. And things may get worse in the second quarter," IDC said.

Henry Blodget's October 2008 article, "Let's Be Serious: Online Display Ads Will Fall Sharply in 2009", seems eerily prophetic in light of this latest IDC announcement.




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